Modelling the Economic Impact of Upskill Canada
Canada needs workforce investments that help people move into better jobs while enabling employers to develop the talent required for growth. Demonstrating the effectiveness of those investments means connecting participant outcomes to a clear account of how training could create economic value.
Palette Skills engaged Blueprint to conduct an independent analysis of the first two years of Upskill Canada, a national initiative funded by the Government of Canada’s Upskilling for Industry Initiative. Upskill Canada provides rapid, employer-informed training in high-growth sectors. It connects workers, including people from underrepresented groups, with new career opportunities.
Blueprint analyzed 10,081 program enrolment records from April 2023 to March 2025. We examined participation, completion, employment, and earnings, comparing the participant population with census data and exploring how results varied across sectors, regions, and demographic groups.
Our analysis found promising short-term outcomes: 85% of participants completed their programs. Among graduates with follow-up data, employment increased from 47% at enrolment to 76% following training. Full-time employment rose from 27% to 55%. Average annualized earnings increased by over $17,000. These before-and-after results do not establish causality, but they do provide important evidence about the outcomes participants achieved.
We then developed an economic model to explore the potential value represented by these changes. The model distinguished between increased productivity among participants who remained with the same employer and better use of skills among those who found work, changed employers, or increased their hours. It also considered how gains could benefit workers through higher earnings and employers through additional productive value.
Under the assumptions in the report, Upskill Canada could generate up to $523 million in cumulative productivity gains associated with participants projected to complete training. Blueprint documented the assumptions behind this estimate, and we identified the additional evidence needed to measure causal impact more rigorously.
Our analysis also provided practical directions for strengthening the initiative, including tailoring training to participant needs and investigating which sector models could be scaled. Blueprint recommended stronger outcomes data, administrative data linkage, and comparison-group methods to support future evaluation.
Publicly funded workforce programs aim to benefit workers and the wider economy. But connecting individual outcomes to broader economic value is challenging. Blueprint combined workforce expertise with outcomes analysis and economic modelling to examine how changes in employment and earnings could translate into productivity gains for workers and employers. By making the assumptions and evidence gaps explicit, we helped Palette Skills assess the potential economic benefits of public investment—and identify what further evidence is needed to establish its impact.
Research and resources
Our team and partners live and work on the traditional territory of many Indigenous people across Turtle Island. Blueprint’s home office is situated in the area known as Tkaronto, an area that has been caretaken by the Anishinabek Nation, the Haudenosaunee Confederacy, and the Huron-Wendat for thousands of years. We strive to meaningfully incorporate principles of reconciliation with First Nations, Inuit, and Métis peoples in our day-to-day work, as is our collective responsibility as treaty people, which requires ongoing reflection and collective action.
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